Forecasting Work
After a couple years of experience as a competitive forecasting hobbyist, I am now serving as a Pro Forecaster with the RAND Forecasting Initiative. I also write a weekly newsletter, Above the Fold, for the largest play-money prediction market in the world, Manifold Markets, where I discuss how the week’s global news and developments can be interpreted by prediction markets.
Here is where I am obligated to brag about my forecasting credentials: I am top 40 in the all-time leaderboard on Manifold Markets, and also a top several forecaster on Metaculus, where I have placed 3rd, 2nd, and 4th in the last three quarterly tournaments out of hundreds of competitors. I finished in 6th place in what I believe might have been the largest forecasting tournament ever by number of competitors, the 2025 Bridgewater Competition, and won a recent tournament on forecasting Brazil. I also have experience running a forecasting tournament in my graduate school’s engineering department.
Some of my favorite Manifold markets that I’m currently running are:
- Can someone persuade me to resolve this market YES by the end of June?
- Will someone figure out the purpose of my hostile wooden cube by the end of the year?
- Will there be ubiquitous AI babysitters / childcare by early 2028?
- Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by 2030?
You can use this link to join Manifold, one of the coolest online communities in the world (and I’ve been in some cool online communities).
