Forecasting Work

After a couple years of experience as a competitive forecasting hobbyist, I am now serving as a Pro Forecaster with the RAND Forecasting Initiative and Metaculus. I also write a weekly newsletter, Above the Fold, for the largest play-money prediction market in the world, Manifold Markets, where I discuss how the week’s global news and developments can be interpreted by prediction markets. I’m also a member of the Samotsvety forecasting group.

Here is where I am obligated to brag about my forecasting credentials: I am top 40 in the all-time leaderboard on Manifold Markets, and also a top several forecaster on Metaculus, where I won the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup and have finished in the top five in six other Metaculus Cups since 2024. I finished 6th out of 3,214 in what I believe might have been the largest forecasting tournament ever by number of competitors, the 2025 Bridgewater Competition. I also have experience running a forecasting tournament in my graduate school’s engineering department.

Some of my favorite Manifold markets that I’ve created are:

• Can someone persuade me to resolve this market YES by the end of June?
• Will someone figure out the purpose of my hostile wooden cube by the end of the year?
• Will there be ubiquitous AI babysitters / childcare by early 2028?
• Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by 2030?

You can use this link to join Manifold, one of the coolest online communities in the world (and I’ve been in some cool online communities).