Writing and Projects

I write about science, innovation, forecasting, and other things on my blog, The BS Detector. I also write a weekly newsletter for Manifold Markets, called Above the Fold. Some of my favorite things I’ve written recently are:

• Government-Funded Alchemy Jul 2025
• Manifold vs the World Jul 2025
• The Cognitive Debt of Digging Through Preprints Jun 2025
• AI, Materials, and Fraud, Oh My! May 2025
• Predicting Leo May 2025
• One Alien’s Trash is Another Alien’s Treasure Apr 2025
• The Signal and the Denoiser Mar 2025
• Dark, Dark Oxygen Feb 2025
• 🎵 He’s Making a PlasticList, He’s Checking it Twice… 🎵 Jan 2025

I made a little web-thing to play Boggle with your friends that works while lying flat on the table on your phone or tablet (random-directional tiles) unlike every other Boggle app online.

You can also play my Manifest 2025 choose-your-own-adventure story called You are a NYT Journalist. Can you survive Manifest and get your scoop?.

I also made a puzzle game inspired by the TV show Severance.

I’m a fan of international competitive chess, and I’ve made a tracking spreadsheet for the FIDE 2026 Candidates tournament.

I’m working on a methodology for ranking journals through the revealed preference of academics from elite institutions (WIP).